Projects
A lab built to tell me when I’m wrong.
Read-only agents that collect data, detect signals and report by email. None of them places orders. Each card says what the evidence actually showed.
Featured · Evaluation
A shared 15-minute market-data store and a signal ledger every agent writes to. Each signal is graded net of costs, tagged with its market regime and compared with random entry. A signal kind is only “proven” after 30+ graded signals over 10+ days with a Wilson lower bound above baseline; until then it stays out of alerts.
FoundAlmost nothing in the lab has a durable edge, and the harness is what says so.
Featured · Calibration
Read-only agents that call Kalshi’s 15-minute up/down contracts only when the price cushion is large against the volatility still to come. The gate is set by a backtest rule fixed in advance and checked by a live scorecard. The gold and WTI version adapts the model to a single Pyth settlement candle and a proxy feed whose error is measured.
FoundAccurate calls, but Kalshi’s price already reflects them, so the edge is about zero after fees. Chronos and AutoGluon did not beat the market price at any minute of the 15-minute window or of the 1-hour (1,531 hours, 69 days).
Forecasting
A Databricks notebook comparing an internal demand forecast with a vendor forecast: WMAPE, bias and win rates by scope, customer, brand and demand class, with data-quality guards on every join.
Agent
A headless watcher over 75 symbols that detects trend flips and early rallies on 15-minute bars, and emails only the signal kinds the evidence ledger has proven.
Agent
A read-only options-volatility scanner across about 517 names by sector. It proposes bull call spreads, and each is graded against the market’s own odds at expiry.
Agent
Watches new Solana and Base coins and Coinbase listings, with honeypot filters, a held-out hit-rate gate, a kill switch and a sentiment layer that is tested rather than assumed to predict.
Research
Chronos-2, Chronos-Bolt and AutoGluon forecasts of MNQ and MES daily excursions over three years of bars.
FoundThe models barely beat the three-year average, except for MNQ daily range.
Data
A daily ZIP-level digest for 51 Georgia ZIP codes, built with zero dependencies. It works around a captcha-blocked source by tiling the map and splitting dense areas adaptively.
Tooling
A Smart Money Concepts toolkit: a TradingView Pine indicator, a Python port with an R-multiple backtest, and a read-only scanner.
LLM
A shared client for an external LLM judgement service, run in shadow mode: every judgement is stored beside the outcome and graded before it can influence a decision.
No projects in this category.
Research and engineering projects, not investment advice. The agents are read-only and hold no credentials.